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01/13/2012 - Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR officials seem to be very encouraged so far with their revised rules package for next month's Speedweeks events at Daytona International Speedway.
NASCAR president Mike Helton, vice president of competition Robin Pemberton and Sprint Cup Series director John Darby gave a competition update on the new rules on Friday at Daytona. Thirty-two Sprint Cup teams are in the midst of a three-day test session at the 2.5-mile speedway, preparing themselves for Speedweeks, particularly the February 26 Daytona 500.
At the conclusion of Thursday's opening day session, NASCAR notified teams it will increase the size of the restrictor plates to 15/16 of an inch and reduce the size of the front grille opening by one inch on each side. The sanctioning body also announced it will ban communications between drivers on their car radios during the race in an effort to break up the two-car tandems.
"In what we saw on the racetrack [Thursday], the ability to react from our side and from the teams' side to make adjustments and adapt to those adjustments I think is what we are seeing unfold in front of us," Helton said. "We've not seen anything that we dislike, but we know there are other things that we would like to see more of. I think the progress of the weekend is we're kind of in the middle of it right now."
NASCAR's latest modification to the restrictor plate and the grille openings made for speeds almost reaching 205 mph during Friday morning's session at Daytona. Michael Waltrip Racing drivers Martin Truex Jr. and Clint Bowyer led the way with identical lap speeds of 204.722 mph. Richard Petty Motorsports teammates Marcos Ambrose and Aric Almirola were second quickest at 203.142 mph each.
During the afternoon session, NASCAR gathered further data when as many as 20 cars ran in a draft.
"What we're looking for is just the ability to collect some data and put another check in the box if you will," Darby said. "We've seen a lot of time spent on qualifying laps and qualifying runs. We've seen a little bit of time spent with a two-car-tandem type of a push.
"The one snapshot we haven't been able to capture yet is what does 10 or 15 or 20 cars in an old-school style of draft look like. What kind of speeds do they generate, and what type of rpm do the engines run at. It's something we need, and it's a piece of the master equation if you will, as we close in on a package to come back to Speedweeks with."
Prior to this week's test, NASCAR collected data from test sessions at Talladega Superspeedway last October and then Daytona the following month.
NASCAR has also conducted test sessions for teams to familiarize themselves with the electronic fuel injection systems, which are replacing carburetors in the Sprint Cup cars for the 2012 season.
"I think NASCAR has handled this really well, and we've had a lot of time to develop the systems and get things going," said five-time series champion and 2006 Daytona 500 winner Jimmie Johnson. "I don't have any fear, and I don't really sense any throughout the garage area. We're still learning the rules package as we go.
"With a day and a half to go, I'm not sure NASCAR has settled in with the package they want just yet, and we'll keep fine-tuning. From an overall aero package and plate package, there's still probably some adjusting that would take place I would guess. I really don't know. From a reliability standpoint of the [electronic fuel injection], I don't see any issues for anybody."
Teams will wrap up testing at Daytona on Saturday. NASCAR will then decide if further modifications to the cars are needed before the start of Speedweeks.
"It's a test, and we're all learning from the test, and when we get our information when we're done, we will go back to sit down with our groups and make decisions on how we come back to start Speedweeks," Pemberton said.
During last year's Speedweeks at Daytona, NASCAR made numerous changes to the cars, including the restrictor-plate size.
"When Speedweeks unfolds, many times we do make an adjustment when we're down here to address what the teams have done to make their improvements," Pemberton added. "We expect that out of them, and they expect that out of us. I think we're all geared up to come back and have a pretty good Speedweeks. I think this is one of the better test sessions that we have been at in a number of years."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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